Between a Bloc and a hard place

Now that things have settled down into the pre-Christmas lull, let us summarize the first 3 weeks of December:

Week 1
Stephane Dion, Jack Layton and Gilles Duceppe formally signed an agreement to overthrow the elected Government of Canada as soon a they could propose a non-confidence motion. They went as far as telling the Governor General that they had a government in waiting for her to rubber stamp as soon as the vote occurred. It truly was poor form on their part to try to bully her Excellency into a decision before she could assess the situation and makes her own judgement as to whether such an arrangement would be in the best interests of the country - as they would later learn to their eternal chagrin.

So what of this chimera of a coalition? Dion had expressedly said during the election campaign that he would never consider a coalition with the NDP as they would be really bad for the economy - but miraculously they were ideal partners to govern during an economic crisis. Then there was the Bloc. They were not supposed to be formally part of this coalition - which begs the question of how a group of 113 could propose to unseat 143 - but had signed an agreement not to vote against this new government. The success of their plan depended on speed; if they could stay ahead of the news cycle and the blogosphere, get their non-confidence vote in and press gang her Excellency into approving their plan, they would be laughing all the way to the bank. They thought they had everything covered - constititional 'experts' on their side, a signed agreement in place, a former (NDP) Governor General coming out and saying that there was no good reason why this should not be approved - so the expectation was by Friday they would be scheduling the Cabinet swearing in ceremonies to coincide with their Holiday festivities.

There were a few things which didn't enter into the Gang of Three's calculations:

• The people of Canada were not amused. Actually, they were furious with what looked to be a naked power grab on the part of Dion, Layton and Duceppe. The formulation was technically valid under the Westminister Parliamentary system, but people from all parts of the political spectrum felt it was wrong. While it followed the letter of the law, it definitely (by including parties committed to the dissolution of the nation) violated its spirit.
• There existed an equally valid and equally constitutional option that the Prime Minister proposed to Her Excellency - prorogation.
  
• Her Excellency, giving consideration to the effects this was having on both the economy (large TSX drop after coalition signing, continuing dollar weakness after announcements that they intended on seeing this through) and larger civil society (mass letter/e-mail writing, demonstrations by individuals who were not prone to going out and demonstrating) decided to take the advice of her Prime Minister and prorogue.
  

No confidence vote. No access to the parliamentary limo pool. Lots of nasty questions and leaks. Oopsie!

Week 2
With the Governor General's decision to prorogue and the tide of public opinion very stongly against this abortive attempt at parliamentary re-configuration, the powers that be in the Liberal Party of Canada start having cold feet. In no time flat, M. Dion is gone, replaced by Michael Ignatieff. Heck, if the Liberal Party had no taste for democracy with respect to parliament why should they have it for their own organization?

Ignatieff, in his post as 'interim' leader, proceeds to try distancing himself from the coalition. The Prime Minister extends an olive branch. Jack and Gilles seethe in the corner.

Week 3
Various members of the NDP speaking with the media take the oportunity to remind them (and us) the Ignatieff's signature is on the coalition document. Ignatieff proceeds to distance himself from the coalition.

So what does the new year hold? Parliament resumes on January 26th, with the Throne Speech, to be followed by the presentation of the Budget on the 27th. Allowing sufficient time for the usual debate, the vote will likely be held on February 2nd. In all honesty, I don't see the government losing that vote because the Liberal Party needs as much time as they can get between that ill-conceived coalition and the next general election to allow Ignatieff to be defined to the public, and to try and wash away the stench. Good Luck boys.